A new study from data analysis vendor Truven Health Analytics predicts a modest increase in Medicaid enrollment in the early years of health care reform as tens of millions of consumers enroll in health insurance exchanges to compare and select a benefit plan.

Based on an assumption of partial state acceptance to expand Medicaid, as the Supreme Court ruled the federal government could not mandate state expansion, the vendor estimates Medicaid enrollment nationwide will increase from 47 million in 2013 to 53 million in 2016. The number of patients enrolled in a health insurance exchange will reach 21 million in 2016.

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