Leavitt Partners, a consultancy led by former HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt, has released an updated Health Reform Bracketology, modeled after sports brackets to explain various scenarios for reform provisions based on results of the 2012 election.

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The brackets lay out 12 scenarios--three each for how results would affect four specific parts of the reform law: public entitlement programs, insurance market reforms, insurance distribution, and payment and delivery reform. The scenarios are Democratic gridlock with the party maintaining the White House and Senate; Republican gridlock with the party winning the White House and holding the House; and Republican sweep with the party winning the White House and both houses of Congress.

For instance, Leavitt Partners predictions for insurance market reform under a Republican sweep include:

* Replacing guaranteed issue with high-risk pool development or other incentives for opting into coverage;

* Retaining such consumer provisions as the ban on rescissions, ban on annual and lifetime limits, and dependent coverage up to age 26;

* Repealing or disempowering of the individual mandate;

* Altering or repealing of rating limitations; and

* Repealing or redefining the medical loss ratio.

The brackets are available at healthreformbracketology.com.

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