At a time of unprecedented change across the industry, the need for healthcare organizations to look and plan ahead has never been greater. Senior leadership faces increasingly complex decisions laden with risk and uncertainty.

Yet most healthcare forecasting still relies on single-point methods that don’t hold up to mathematical scrutiny. This traditional approach to forecasting is based on static cases for “best, worst, and most likely” scenarios, requiring executives to make complex decisions based on only a handful of observations. The flaw is in the false premise that the underlying assumptions can be known with such precision. The real world doesn’t work that way.

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